Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 105.626863 120.359926 136.824067 156.662864 180.020319 206.768471 239.892158
2026-02-08 83.650553 101.879595 123.946671 152.890708 190.244039 237.360097 302.143636
2026-02-15 70.167111 89.658540 114.671057 149.624473 198.016488 263.873309 362.437602
2026-02-22 64.747180 86.210976 115.182201 157.997498 221.147658 313.316619 462.774651
2026-03-01 58.574770 80.613140 111.601477 159.554405 234.129983 349.670247 550.620534
2026-03-08 53.781610 76.185771 108.842804 161.496242 247.407164 388.036975 649.295456
2026-03-15 49.354654 71.686585 105.275868 161.431036 257.074280 421.660612 746.695736
2026-03-22 47.490154 70.772679 106.944349 169.749108 281.687987 484.945344 914.159951
2026-03-29 45.551812 69.484417 107.781448 176.640683 304.696189 549.389138 1100.774053
2026-04-05 43.600060 67.939347 107.959925 182.292066 326.158949 614.781814 1307.600812
2026-04-12 41.115103 65.254381 105.891171 183.540404 339.229541 665.501542 1495.231291
2026-04-19 38.666305 62.395823 103.206223 183.241878 349.048468 711.029913 1683.662845
2026-04-26 35.763727 58.594320 98.636338 179.075604 350.878642 740.714164 1845.006211
2026-05-03 33.131891 55.057937 94.227752 174.723287 351.719608 768.571551 2012.115095
2026-05-10 30.850802 51.958408 90.329273 170.910668 353.122137 798.073835 2195.060518
2026-05-17 30.457716 52.255124 92.850935 180.731156 387.463044 919.151860 2717.796325
2026-05-24 29.154551 50.743708 91.717950 182.559153 403.078729 994.413686 3121.449571
2026-05-31 28.007177 49.431254 90.846448 184.839117 420.217396 1078.366750 3598.816797
2026-06-07 26.713074 47.733368 89.037519 184.762585 431.307687 1147.545949 4055.141430
2026-06-14 26.448636 48.027052 91.343055 194.537744 470.431264 1314.274995 5025.876456
2026-06-21 26.020516 47.955260 92.865534 202.647877 506.673198 1483.535572 6131.616006
2026-06-28 25.477741 47.604649 93.749538 209.305970 540.177586 1654.851589 7385.054157
2026-07-05 24.554174 46.396919 92.641388 210.777568 558.564523 1777.965627 8478.526045